October Home Sales Drop 30 Percent… Why?

Someone sent me a link to an article in Everett Herald titled Snohomish County Prices Still Falling.

At the very bottom there’s statistics of home sales in October:

SNOHOMISH COUNTY
Listings: 5,455, up 5.5 percent.
Pending sales: 968, down 19 percent.
Closed sales: 579, down 29.8 percent.
Median price: $260,000, down 7 percent.

I was really surprised that the sales were almost 30 percent down. That’s a big number! Did we experience such a huge drop in home sales?

Let’s try to sort this out.

Real estate sales are very seasonal. So any stats are seasonally adjusted. What does that mean? The stats above compare the data of October 2010 with October 2009 (not the previous months, which was September 2010). So this shouldn’t be understood as if we lost 30 percent of sales in October, comparing to September.

Now, why did we have 30 percent less sales this October than the last one?

I did a little research on the MLS and here’s what I found:

Home sales traditionally slow down in the fall. We see this is what happened in 2008 and 2010. How about 2009?

I don’t have an explanation at this point but for some reason there was a boost in homes sales in October of 2009 (Was it the extension of the tax credit?). That’s why the drop appears to be that huge. It’s not this October but last October that is unusual.

This October, as seasonally expected the home sales are down.

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Latest Homes for Sale Listed in Snohomish, Washington:

Showing properties 1 - 3 of 230. See more city of Snohomish real estate.
(all data current as of 5/20/2012)

1. $775,000 : 2931 171st Ave SE, Snohomish
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 3,615 sq ft

   Lot size: 4.75 ac

   Year built: 2005

   Parking spots: 8

   Days on market: 1
   
2. $499,900 : 14710 123rd Av Ct SE, Snohomish
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,774 sq ft

   Year built: 1988

   Parking spots: 3

   Days on market: 1
   
3. $475,000 : 23620 131st Ave SE, Snohomish
   
   4 beds, 1 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 2,801 sq ft

   Lot size: 4.28 ac

   Year built: 1983

   Parking spots: 3

   Days on market: 1
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.